Then again… (in which I contradict some of what I wrote in my previous post)

In my most recent post I went through what I believe are the 14 contenders for being nominated for Best Picture at this year’s Oscars. I concluded that Another Year, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole and The Town would get left out while the following would be nominated:

• The Kids Are All Right
• The Social Network
• The King’s Speech
• Winter’s Bone
• Black Swan
• Toy Story 3
• The Fighter
• 127 Hours
• Inception
• True Grit

But, here’s the thing… or the start of a list of things:

The Kids Are All Right should not be on the list. It’s a comedy with little depth. It has some good performances, but nothing spectacular. Moore and Bening are probably getting more credit for playing lesbians than for any particularly notable work they put on the screen here. This might have been one of the more intelligent comedies of the year, which garners some attention, but this film is not worthy of a Best Picture nod. If the nominations were 5 again instead of 10, it would far too easy to forget that The Kids Are All Right was on or even close to the list.

The King’s Speech and the Fighter are both crowd-pleasers, but they also don’t provide much originality (and not just because they are based on real events and people). The King’s Speech has an awesome performance in Colin Firth’s king, and he may very well win Best Actor for it, and Geoffrey Rush does a great supporting job, sure. Even Helena Bonham Carter does a fine job, though she is working with less. The problem with The King’s Speech is there are no surprises; not sure if it was because reality just fit the obvious story structure or the someone stuck it into that structure but it fits it perfectly. The Fighter suffers from this as well, and has the detriment (not benefit) of being based on real people and events; specifically, while Bale does a great job with his character (and may get Supporting Actor for it), his character’s drug problems never really get in the way of the momentum of the story, never really seem like something that will keep Wahlberg’s character from not making it. The plot is a by-the-numbers Boxing film, that just happens to include some amusing characters (the sisters, the mother, even Amy Adams’ character, at least in that porch scene where she finally gets to do something, and the aforementioned Bale of course). The end product is far less than its various parts, and some of its parts—notably, Wahlberg—aren’t much in the first place. The King’s Speech is predictable but well made enough to be an understandable candidate for Best Picture. The Fighter should be left behind.

True Grit has great writing, great directing, some good performances, but in retrospect I’m not sure the chemistry between Steinfeld and Bridges earns the big dramatic ride in the end or the jump forward in time ending that follows, not to mention the ride itself coming off as fairly fake visually. So, let’s strike True Grit from the list.

So, I’d slide Blue Valentine and Another Year and The Town onto the list of ten. Except The Town, while a good picture, especially for its genre also doesn’t hold many surprises (especially if one has ever seen Heat (even though, apparently, The Town is based on a book, but maybe the author of that book has seen Heat one too many times). It’s well directed in my opinion and there are good performances, but we have to be picky here. So, slide The Town right back off the list.

Now, I wouldn’t slide Rabbit Hole in. And, I would grab some dark horse like, say, Get Low and move it into the conversation. Instead, I’d pull back from 10 nominations. My personal favorites for the year, in no particular order: Black Swan, The Social Network, 127 Hours, Inception, Toy Story 3… and there’s five.

I actually have yet to find fault with Blue Valentine, but Best Picture should be about more than just favorites. There has to be some objectivity, some value to bigger pictures, the ones that involve larger crews, grander visuals. Of course, the Independent Spirit Award nominations are out and Blue Valentine isn’t up for Best Picture there either. Black Swan is, and 127 Hours is, so the crossover is confusing…

Plus, to contradict what I just said, Best Picture should be about more than just who can spend more money or employ more people. There should be an emphasis on the combination of writing, acting, directing, everything that goes into movies. A big period piece or war movie with a lot of costumes shouldn’t automatically have an advantage over something like Blue Valentine, which doesn’t even seem to have costumes per se but just the clothes that Michelle Williams and Ryan Gosling happened to wear (not sure if this is actually the case, but it certainly seems like it could be). Inception is a well made film that juggles its ensemble cast quite well, but in the end the spectacle holds up better than the story…

So, how do we measure it? Some years it’s obvious. Regardless of what one might of thought subjectively of, say Titanic, that film did things no film had ever done before. Nowadays, more is done digitally so when (again James Cameron) puts together something as visually stunning as Avatar (but arguably so dependent on archetypes as to be weak in its characterization) that it doesn’t take the Oscar so easily. There is no big movie dominating the scene this year. If anything, that would be Inception, but no one’s predicting Inception as the winner. The momentum right now is with The Social Network and has recently been with The King’s Speech. Both of these are more dependent on acting and writing than any awesome visuals. Black Swan, on the other hand, has the awesome visuals, but it is also has some imagery (both in the disturbing and the sexual) that would put off some audiences… so must a Best Picture be eminently watchable? Or should it push boundaries, dare to disturb an audience? Why can’t the winner be depressing? Why must it be an audience-pleaser? Of course, last year’s winner, The Hurt Locker, isn’t much of a feel-good movie. But, then Slumdog Millionaire, the previous winner, is. The Oscars are nothing if not inconsistent.

I loved Blue Valentine, but it shouldn’t win the Oscar for Best Picture. I loved Black Swan, and while it is very deserving of maybe Director, it should not win Best Picture. 127 Hours takes a risk, putting everything it has into on the shoulders of one actor, but James Franco manages to carry it (and could be a serious contender against Colin Firth… or more likely just a fellow nominee for Firth to mention when he’s accepting his statue). But, if a movie is so small, is that the “Best” use of cinema?

And so, it comes down (though I may have skipped past a few) to The Social Network. Ensemble cast, but not so large as to be unwieldy. Great writing, with Sorkin’s high-energy dialogue delivered successfully by the assorted cast members. Fincher directs a fairly static storyline (with a lot of scenes of people just sitting (or standing) around talking, with a great energy to match the script but with the help of Reznor’s music sets a very dark sort of mood that almost goes too far for the tone of the story… but, then again, the protagonist is either an asshole or a guy trying to be one, a guy who may or may not have screwed over not just some arrogant jocks but also his best friend, yet still comes across, much to the benefit of Jesse Eisenberg, as somewhat… not likable, per se (though I liked him), but not as someone the audience rejects outright. So, what’s wrong with The Social Network? Perhaps the ending doesn’t make most of the audience feel good. Perhaps that musical interlude in the race scene goes on a little too long. Or maybe there isn’t anything “wrong” with The Social Network. Which is why it will win on Oscar day.

filling out the "best picture" list

With 10 nominees again, there are a few obvious contenders for Best Picture at the Oscars this year:

The frontrunners are, of course The King's Speech and The Social Network. Other givens are Inception, True Grit and The Fighter. Just like Up, Toy Story 3 should also make the list. Black Swan should be there, but then it gets a little iffy.

Given the above films making it, there are 3 slots left. By my reckoning, there are 6 films contending for them. 127 Hours should make the list but Entertainment Weekly (for reasons that don't really have to do with that film specifically but a couple of those that follow) thinks it may just miss the mark. There are a few indies vying for a spot--Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Another Year, Winter's Bone, each of these quite good (better than The Fighter, for example), built around solid performances that might end up getting some acting nods (Kidman more likely but Eckhart more deserving for Rabbit Hole, Williams and Gosling for Blue Valentine, Manville perhaps--and Broadbent would be cool too--for Another Year, Lawrence almost guaranteed a nomination for Winter's Bone).

There is also The Kids Are All Right, which has been showing up on numerous lists, will likely get at least one Actress nomination and has the benefit of being a comedy, and with 10 nominees it seems at least one comedy would show up. Worth mentioning, though: The Kids Are All Right does not deserve to be on the list, but it still may be there. Of course, it wasn't too great a year for comedy... The Golden Globes, which award a Comedy or Musical separate from Drama, put up Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, Red, The Tourist and The Kids Are All Right. The Tourist, as I mentioned in my blog a while back, is not a comedy. Burlesque, arguably not a musical, is also not a comedy, and purportedly is not that good (note: it leads in nominations for the Razzies). Red won't get anywhere near the Oscar stage. Alice in Wonderland will probably be at the Oscars, but for Visual Effects.

The National Board of Review, not to mention the Los Angeles Times' Tom O'Neil, includes Shutter Island on their big lists for the year, as well as Hereafter. I can't imagine the former being nominated for much of anything at these Oscars and the latter, while it might score some minor nomination, likely won't garner anything big like Director for Eastwood or Best Picture.

So then, which ones will be nominated?

Winter's Bone seems like the indie to for sure make the cut.

Personally, I would put Another Year, Blue Valentine, and Rabbit Hole over The Fighter--while Bale was awesome and Leo was great, the film overall was far too predictable and lacking in real drama to have earned the place it will take at the Oscars. These movies are all three quite sad (Another Year the saddest)... maybe this will be a year for sad films, since Biutiful will be on the Foreign Language list--and since I'm on the subject of sad films, personally I would have made sure Catfish was on the short list for Documentary Feature (though I can't imagine it being among the final nominees or winning) but it didn't make it. More likely, the sad films might get some acting wins but will get shut out of winning Best Picture... but this isn't about the win. Take the seven listed at the top of this post and add in The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone and... I just realized I forgot to mention (but did count) The Town. So, that last Best Picture slot comes down to The Town, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole and Another Year and 127 Hours. This last one seems like the easy candidate.

So, final ten:

The King's Speech

The Social Network

Inception

Black Swan

Toy Story 3

The Fighter

127 Hours

Winter's Bone

True Grit

The Kids Are All Right

Left out, but deserving: Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole, Another Year, The Town

Alice in Wonderland… Best Picture?

Simple answer: no.

But that is the latest movie I watched that will likely show up in Oscar nominations come 25 January. Tom O’Neil listed Alice in Wonderland among the possible nominees for best picture, but that won’t happen. My predictions for best picture nominees are as follows… in no particular order: Inception, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, The Fighter, The Social Network, 127 Hours, True Grit, Winter’s Bone, Toy Story 3… and filling that last spot will probably be The Kids Are All Right, but it might be The Town. While I figure I’ll enjoy Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole (two I haven’t seen yet), can’t imagine them getting any best picture nominations.

Now, who will win?

Inception had some momentum back when it was in theaters, and Christopher Nolan is likely to get a director nomination for the film, but I think that momentum may be gone. Still, it was a visually amazing film, with a nice, complex plot, fit to entertain the less intelligent while working its slow motion magic on the more discerning audience as well. While I can’t picture any of the actors being nominated, there’s a good shot at Visual Effects or one of the Sound awards.

Black Swan was also visually amazing—and I am a sucker for Aronofsky (who will get a director nomination)—but I have a feeling the—SPOILER ALERT—“downer” ending, not to mention the bizarre visuals and lesbian sex might put off some voters. Still, Natalie Portman gave a performance that will get her a nomination and that gives her a great shot at the win.

So, then comes the seeming front runner, The King’s Speech. It certainly has the elements of an Oscar winner—true story, main character with a challenge to overcome, and an awesome performance from Colin Firth… well, I guess “an awesome performance from Colin Firth” is not really an element of an Oscar winner, but that does seem to be guaranteed win for The King’s Speech (even if, say, Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco (and maybe Jeff Bridges, but I haven’t seen True Grit yet) were fantastic, but I’ll get to that below) even if it can’t take Best Picture. The problem with The King’s Speech, though, is the plot is actually fairly generic, no real surprises if you go in having any idea what it’s about. Still Geoffrey Rush is, as usual, great, and Colin Firth should take the win.

Another film that suffers from genericness (probably not a word, but oh well) is The Fighter. Mark Wahlberg didn’t detract from the film as much as I personally expected (didn’t help that I actually watched The Happening again just a matter of hours before going to see The Fighter). Christian Bale was, as usual, great; should definitely garner a Supporting Actor nomination. Amy Adams and/or Melissa Leo (more the latter than the former) will likely show up as the Academy’s Supporting Actress nominees, but personally, I’m not sure either one did much that was that impressive.

The Social Network took Best Picture from the Boston, New York and Los Angeles film critics associations, and was a great film and possibly my pick for Best Picture—though I think I liked Black Swan more, I think access to a wider audience, despite its main character being a bit unlikable, gives The Social Network an edge here. Eisenberg was great, as were Armie Hammer, Justin Timberlake and Andrew Garfield… of course, while this cast has a good shot at a SAG award for ensemble, I don’t think any of them will get any individual awards; Jesse Eisenberg did get Best Actor from the Boston critics and should get an Oscar nomination, but he won’t win. Fincher will get a director nomination and will probably take the win, though Aronofsky or Nolan have a good shot here (and the Coen brothers could make the list as well).

127 Hours is an amazing film, but as far as awards go, it all comes down to James Franco (though Boyle could garner a Best Director nomination, but not a win) as Lead Actor. While his performance is certainly worthy, I think audiences and actors (and a good percentage of the Academy is made up of actors) will appreciate what Colin Firth did for The King’s Speech more than what Franco did here, so I am not expecting an Oscar win for 127 Hours.

True Grit I have not seen yet. But, given the Coen brothers and Jeff Bridges, Critics Choice nominations also for Hailee Steinfield, for Makeup and Costume Design and Cinematography (and winning this last one from the Boston Critics), not to mention it looks like it will be as great if not better than the John Wayne version, it seems like True Grit will be a big player on Oscar day.

Winter’s Bone is the little movie that will probably make the big Best Picture list (unlike, say, Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole or Get Low or numerous others). Jennifer Lawrence has shown up on the Globes list, the Critics Choice list, the Spirit Awards… but I don’t think she’ll win. Still, she put up a strong performance and I hope the nomination she’s likely to get will give her a good choice of roles to come.

Toy Story 3 should take Best Animated Feature and could be a surprise win for Best Picture, but probably not the latter. It is certainly one of the best films this past year, but animated films don’t even make the Best Picture list generally, and they never win (or never have, yet… it certainly seems like if anyone is going to break that, it will be Pixar).

The Kids Are All Right was a good film for a while, but really I think it would have worked better—SPOILER ALERT—if the cheating had been more of an emotional kind than just sex (not that it was just sex). In the end, the movie didn’t have anywhere to go, and while I might appreciate an open ended story, most audiences like the plot to come to a nice conclusion, all wrapped up and handed to them—like the feel-good ending of The Fighter or The King’s Speech or even the oh-my-god-do-you-think-that-top-kept-spinning? cleverness of Inception. Annette Bening seems like the front runner for Best Actress, though. Aside from maybe that scene near then end when she breaks down in tears on the couch, I didn’t see anything that blew me away, but the Academy loves it when an actress plays her age and the lesbian angle may give her role just enough edge to ensure her a win.

The Town was a well-directed film, but suffers from a bit of the genericness (there’s that word again) of a heist movie. But, still, I can’t imagine Affleck being nominated, and none of the actors will be on the list either. So, this is a long shot for Best Picture. I think The Town’s best shot on Oscar day will be for writing, even though its strong point is its direction.

So, which film will win? Momentum may change as Oscar day gets closer, but right now, I’d say it’s between The Social Network and The King’s Speech, with the edge going to the former.

And, Alice in Wonderland will not even make the Best Picture list.