The following predictions are in the reported (by Nikki Finke) presentation order:
Art Direction – Alice in Wonderland certainly has a nice edge with its fantasy setting, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I benefits from the same, though not as much. True Grit has some good, well, grit. But, this award comes down to The King’s Speech and Inception. Arguably, Inception should take this (as the obvious choice of Alice in Wonderland probably won’t)… but The King’s Speech, whatever its strengths actually are (i.e. they are NOT in its Art Direction), may just take everything for which it’s nominated. However, I think Inception will take this one.
Cinematography – Westerns have an advantage here (though I’m not sure they always win, they do seem to get nominated a lot) with wide open skies and whatnot, so this should be Roger Deakins’ award to lose. Inception had some great visuals, but the strength seems to be the visuals and not how those visuals were framed. The King’s Speech and the Social Network are more about the writing and the acting than any great visuals (not that they don’t also look good). Black Swan did take the Spirit Award (I’m watching the Spirit Awards as I write this), but it wasn’t against these nominees there. Really, this award is for True Grit to take.
Supporting Actress – One of the obvious ones, so let’s rule out the losers. Amy Adams is in the same film as Leo (the winner) and she has the less flashy part, so she’s out. Helena Bonham Carter for Alice in Wonderland I can understand, but here it’s just another bit of The King’s Speech being nominated for, well, every damn award they could squeeze it into, but she won’t win; her part is small, there isn’t much emotion to it, and she’s not doing anything that about any actress couldn’t do in her place. Hailee Steinfeld was great and I would say she deserves this award—she or Jacki Weaver, who was amazingly creepy in Animal Kingdom—but, while I don’t think Hailee being in the wrong category will hurt her (she’s still the possible upset), the momentum of Melissa Leo in this category will keep up, regardless of what anyone thought of her consideration ads.
Animated Feature – How to Train Your Dragon was a fun movie, maybe a little weak in its last act, but good, enjoyable, and it made great use of 3D. But, the plot is actually pretty basic, nothing special. The Illusionist needed this nomination just so people will go out and see it. Still, not a lot of people will bother… they should. It’s better than a lot of the other films in a lot of the other categories. That being said, Toy Story 3 is better, fully deserving of its Best Picture nomination. It won’t win for Best Picture, but Toy Story 3 will win here.
Animated Short – I wrote a whole blog on this category just tonight, so I won’t get into much detail except to say Let’s Pollute is awesome, The Lost Thing is strangely fascinatingly odd, Masagascar A Journey Diary is stylish and visually interesting but ultimately empty of any real content. But, Day & Night manages to balance hugely fun visuals and style with a clear, concise message.
Adapted Screenplay – Honestly, I don’t know any of the source material (outside of the previous Toy Story films, of course), but I’m guessing most of the Academy doesn’t either, so this isn’t really about which screenplay necessarily adapts its source best, but which screenplay is best out of those that happen to be adapted. Just getting that out there. Anyway, all five of these have some great writing. 127 Hours manages to build a complete story with a very limited focus. Winter’s Bone takes a bunch of characters, most of which should be fairly unlikeable, and pulls the audience in. Toy Story 3 manages to have the pathos of a serious film, some fantastic comedy (on multiple age levels but somehow not separating the jokes into adult ones and kids ones as some animated films do) and some perilous drama (I still say the incinerator scene was one of the best dramatic scenes in any film all year). True Grit manages to be almost the epitome of modern westerns as well as the epitome of Coen brothers films. Still this is Aaron Sorkin’s award; like Winter’s Bone, The Social Network gives us a handful of characters we probably shouldn’t like but gives us reason to root for any and all of them, with crisp, witty dialogue and nary a word wasted.
Original Screenplay – Up front, I must say again, I don’t think Mike Leigh’s style of “screenplay” should even be considered as a contender is this category. The WGA does have a category for documentary writing, so Leigh’s makeshift style (more like a documentary screenplay to me, put together after footage which comes after cast meetings and pseudo-improv invention) certainly counts as writing—I wouldn’t slight him that much—but it is not, strictly speaking, a screenplay. But, he’s not going to win anyway, so on to the rest. The Fighter is a by-the-numbers boxing film, hindered by reality in that Bale’s character never really gets in the way of his brother’s success, not in a real dramatic sense. The Kids Are All Right took the Spirit Award, yeah, and it’s a good script (I still think someone needs to do an infidelity story that doesn’t include sex, but maybe that’s just me) but despite its lauds, it’s a comedy which doesn’t necessarily weigh in its favor on Oscar day. Inception, too complicated for a lot of its audience and, at the same time, a little simplistic in some of its characterization and plot, was probably the best of the nominees as far as its writing goes, and it did take the WGA award. But, this award is more likely to go to The King’s Speech, which wasn’t eligible there.
Foreign Language Film – I’ve only seen two of the nominees here, Biutiful and Dogtooth. Biutiful is one of a few recent films deserving of a descriptor like “haunting.” It’s depressing, it deals with some subject matter about which many probably wouldn’t want to see a film (notably, illegal sweatshop workers), but it’s a great drama, with a dark but clear throughline, some great acting (not just by Bardem, nominated below) and writing and directing. Dogtooth is also about some stuff many wouldn’t want to see; it’s got explicit sex, disturbing violence and, depending on how you take it, a political message to which many would object. It is at once one of the best and one of the worst films I have seen. Dogtooth won’t win, can’t win. Biutiful may. But, I have a feeling that In a Better World will take this one.
Supporting Actor – John Hawkes took the Spirit Award, but will suffer from the smallness of Winter’s Bone here. He just won’t have the support (pun unintended) for this award. Jeremy Renner has a good turn humanizing a guy who (just like Hawkes’ character, actually) is actually a bit disturbing and unlikeable. Mark Ruffalo is charming but really doesn’t have much depth in The Kids Are All Right. Geoffrey Rush is a longshot for the upset, doing a great job with a great role, but this award belongs to Christian Bale who, it’s been said, so embodied his character that locals mistook him for the real thing during filming.
Original Score – Who remembers How to Train Your Dragon for its music? Desplat’s score for The King’s Speech is lazy and unoriginal. Zimmer’s work in Inception is good, but mostly depends on existing music for its most memorable portions (not so much that it was ineligible, of course, but enough that I think it shouldn’t win). 127 Hours made good use of music, but better use of various songs than the score, but it is the potential upset here, but only by far. This award belongs to Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for The Social Network, a score that is haunting, adding a tonal depth to the film that, really, is probably in part responsible for the film standing out from other dialogue heavy fare.
Sound Mixing – I still think Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I should have been in this category and the next. But, it’s not, and these predictions are not about wishful thinking (for the most part) but about how I think the Academy voting will come out. Salt gets to represent the action films of the year here, but it won’t win. True Grit and The Social Network shine elsewhere. The King’s Speech, even as much as it depends on sound, its focus being voice, probably won’t take this one. This award goes to Inception, creating the world of dreams audibly as well as visually (we’ll get to that in a bit).
Sound Editing – Unstoppable takes the action movie slot here… as does TRON: Legacy I suppose, and I guess either one has a shot. True Grit—well, I’m not even sure why that one made this particular list. Toy Story 3, as well, doesn’t seem specifically fit for a sound category—though I wouldn’t slight the sound of the film; I just don’t think it’s about that. So, absent some really obvious reason for any of these, again, sound goes to Inception, combining music, explosions, dialogue, everything, without overloading our ears.
Makeup – The Way Back uses makeup mostly for swollen limbs and injuries, and I think the Academy is more likely to go for stuff that involves the face more. Barney’s Version makes great use of subtle makeup, aging multiple characters over many years, while The Wolfman goes for bigger, more obvious stuff (but blurs the line a little between that makeup and CGI). Still, in recent years, the Academy has gone for more obvious over more subtle, so this one goes to The Wolfman.
Costume Design – Personally, I think the pseudo-conquistador costumes made up of zippers in The Tempest were awesome and deserve recognition from somewhere, if not the Oscars. But, no one saw that film, and most of the few who did see it didn’t like it, so it’s not likely to win any award. I Am Love makes great use of fashion in Tilda Swinton’s various outfits, but it may suffer the subtlety problem (like Barney’s Version in the Makeup category). Similarly, The King’s Speech actually should suffer that problem (but might not), as should True Grit (though that bear costume was cool, it wasn’t really representative of the film as a whole). This should be the award for Alice in Wonderland… but there could easily be an upset here.
Documentary Short – Already did a blog focused on these nominees, but short version: The Warriors of Qiugang and Killing in the Name seem incomplete to me, wanting. Sun Come Up belabors the global warming subject when its focus is far more specific. Strangers No More is the most pleasant of the options and is a potential upset, but really doesn’t come right out and get to its point (a child in the film arguably states the thesis of the piece, but the documentary itself leaves it up to the audience to decide for sure; maybe that’s good, maybe that’s bad). My favorite was Poster Girl, and it was the most affecting of the group and got the most applause at the screening I attended. Still, Killing in the Name has a good topic, more obvious in its timeliness though really concurrent with Poster Girl. So, I’m going to call it for Poster Girl (but I will admit that is partly wishful thinking).
Live Action Short – Already did a blog tonight on this category as well. Short version: God of Love lacks substance, Na Wewe should’ve gone for comedy more than drama, The Crush was great but is shorter (yeah, I think it may come down to that) than the other two, as good, nominees. The Confession is great, sad, poignant. But, Wish 143 gets at some of the sad, retains some of the cute of The Crush and doesn’t have its lead be responsible for something as bad as that in The Confession. So, I’m predicting Wish 143.
Documentary Feature – I haven’t seen Waste Land but I also haven’t seen much of anyone predicting it to win. Gas Land was good but came across more as a TV level documentary than something worthy of being a feature. Restrepo was good after about half an hour, when I got to know the characters; I wonder how many Academy members were bored, or confused, by then. It comes down to Inside Job and Exit Through the Gift Shop. Inside Job took the DGA and WGA award for documentary and has a nice timely subject in the economy (however unfeelingly it presents it half the time). As much as I would love it if Exit Through the Gift Shop would win (and it was nice to see it take the Spirit Award tonight), to see if Banksy would show up, I think this one will go to the safer choice of Inside Job.
Visual Effects – Some great choices here, the blockbuster Iron Man 2, the seemingly smallscale (and somewhat forgettable) drama Hereafter, the outlandish Alice in Wonderland and the rather routine (as far as its visuals go, after 6 previous films) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part I. But, if there is any award that needs to go to Inception, it’s this one.
Film Editing – Some great editing work here—even as much as I like to dismiss The Fighter, its editing was good… albeit nothing new. Similarly, The King’s Speech is a straightforward drama, with simple pacing, nothing exciting (perhaps deliberately the opposite, actually, which would be a plus for its chances here, I guess). Black Swan often dependent on its editing for the tension, 127 Hours building a complete film out of a limited setting and very limited cast. But, The Social Network weaves together multiple story threads, an out-of-chronological-order sequencing (similar to 127 Hours) but still has to make dialogue heavy scenes interesting (similar to The King’s Speech). This award can be an easy predictor of Best Picture, and I think this one is going to The Social Network.
Original Song – Over-the-credits songs and in-context, story-related songs are two very different animals. And, this category gives us two of each. I See the Light is probably the best song in Tangled, certainly the most memorable, but I find myself comparing it not to its competition here but to earlier Disney animated musicals’ songs, and it comes up a bit lacking. It’s like the afterthought to the action, rather than the action itself. Coming Home, though Country Strong is not really a Musical per se, is arguably the key to the entire film, but I’m not sure much of the Academy bothered to watch the film, and those who would like the music probably hated the ending, and those who might’ve liked the ending probably didn’t care for the music. Between the two, I think this only got nominated because the film is so music heavy, not because it’s really going to win, even if it maybe should. As for the over-the-credits songs, If I Rise is nice, but out of context doesn’t make me think of the film, doesn’t connect me with Aron Ralston in that canyon. A R Rahman may have recently won in this category, but the song seems more like a Dido piece, slowed down, with a bit of Rahman’s Indian tones pasted on. We Belong Together is far more pleasant, it’s got a beat, and even out of context, it makes me think of the film, of those toys striving to stay together. The song not only captures this film but makes for a great bookend with You’ve Got a Friend in Me. So, I’ve got to say, this one’s going to We Belong Together.
Director – DGA gave this to Tom Hooper—and I almost mistyped that as Tobe Hooper… how awesome would The King’s Speech have been then? But, everything else has been giving it to Fincher. Even the BAFTAs gave it to Fincher. The correlation between DGA and Oscar is not 100% and this will be one of the exceptions. Aronofsky did a fantastic job, as did the Coens. Russell has done better, less derivative work before… in retrospect, I wonder if Three Kings was so good because of the writing and not the direction. This award is David Fincher’s award to lose, but he won’t.
Actress – Jennifer Lawrence couldn’t even get the Spirit Award, though John Hawkes and Dale Dickey did. She was great, and I hope this nomination lines her up for something serious again after the X-Men movie (or that, by some fluke, there’s some serious acting going on in that one, but I doubt it), but she’s a longshot. Michelle Williams and Nicole Kidman, I think are even farther off, not because they didn’t take the win at the Spirit Awards either but because their films were actually even smaller than Winter’s Bone. Occasionally, the tiny film gets a big boost in an acting category, but not this year. It comes down to two independent but obviously bigger movies, and I don’t think the momentum has shifted much to Annette Bening over Natalie Portman. This is Black Swan’s award for the night, and really, without Natalie Portman, that film would not be what it is.
Actor – Jeff Bridges won last year, and his turn in True Grit, while awesome, doesn’t stand out here. Javier Bardem does great work in Biutiful, but for a foreign language nominee to get an acting award at the Oscars, it’s got to be something bigger, something more audience friendly (see Roberto Benigni). Jesse Eisenberg, while front and center in The Social Network, also doesn’t stand out… maybe he’s suffering from his character being a bit unlikable. James Franco took the Spirit Award, which is good, because he’s a longshot here. Arguably he shouldn’t be; he essentially carried 127 Hours on his shoulders, perhaps even moreso than Danny Boyle as director. But, this isn’t his year. Colin Firth, who lost last year to Bridges, does something in The King’s Speech that any actor in the Academy (and obviously, plenty of non actors and those outside the Academy) would be impressed by; he altered his speech pattern so much that it gave him physical tics offscreen. He embodied the damaged voice of his character in a way many an actor not only couldn’t but probably wouldn’t even want to try. There is no way this goes to anyone but Colin Firth.
Picture – All that being said, this category, ten nominees aside, comes down to two films. The momentum has been shifting toward The King’s Speech, away from The Social Network. Last year, the momentum shift put The Hurt Locker over Avatar. There’s a strange opposite thing going on, in the sense that last year the more audience friendly film lost its momentum to the edgier, critic friendly one, and this year the critic friendly one is losing momentum to the audience friendly one. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that despite the guild awards, The Social Network will still have the support. I may regret this one, but I’m going to predict The Social Network over The King’s Speech.
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