The frontrunners are, of course The King's Speech and The Social Network. Other givens are Inception, True Grit and The Fighter. Just like Up, Toy Story 3 should also make the list. Black Swan should be there, but then it gets a little iffy.
Given the above films making it, there are 3 slots left. By my reckoning, there are 6 films contending for them. 127 Hours should make the list but Entertainment Weekly (for reasons that don't really have to do with that film specifically but a couple of those that follow) thinks it may just miss the mark. There are a few indies vying for a spot--Rabbit Hole, Blue Valentine, Another Year, Winter's Bone, each of these quite good (better than The Fighter, for example), built around solid performances that might end up getting some acting nods (Kidman more likely but Eckhart more deserving for Rabbit Hole, Williams and Gosling for Blue Valentine, Manville perhaps--and Broadbent would be cool too--for Another Year, Lawrence almost guaranteed a nomination for Winter's Bone).
There is also The Kids Are All Right, which has been showing up on numerous lists, will likely get at least one Actress nomination and has the benefit of being a comedy, and with 10 nominees it seems at least one comedy would show up. Worth mentioning, though: The Kids Are All Right does not deserve to be on the list, but it still may be there. Of course, it wasn't too great a year for comedy... The Golden Globes, which award a Comedy or Musical separate from Drama, put up Alice in Wonderland, Burlesque, Red, The Tourist and The Kids Are All Right. The Tourist, as I mentioned in my blog a while back, is not a comedy. Burlesque, arguably not a musical, is also not a comedy, and purportedly is not that good (note: it leads in nominations for the Razzies). Red won't get anywhere near the Oscar stage. Alice in Wonderland will probably be at the Oscars, but for Visual Effects.
The National Board of Review, not to mention the Los Angeles Times' Tom O'Neil, includes Shutter Island on their big lists for the year, as well as Hereafter. I can't imagine the former being nominated for much of anything at these Oscars and the latter, while it might score some minor nomination, likely won't garner anything big like Director for Eastwood or Best Picture.
So then, which ones will be nominated?
Winter's Bone seems like the indie to for sure make the cut.
Personally, I would put Another Year, Blue Valentine, and Rabbit Hole over The Fighter--while Bale was awesome and Leo was great, the film overall was far too predictable and lacking in real drama to have earned the place it will take at the Oscars. These movies are all three quite sad (Another Year the saddest)... maybe this will be a year for sad films, since Biutiful will be on the Foreign Language list--and since I'm on the subject of sad films, personally I would have made sure Catfish was on the short list for Documentary Feature (though I can't imagine it being among the final nominees or winning) but it didn't make it. More likely, the sad films might get some acting wins but will get shut out of winning Best Picture... but this isn't about the win. Take the seven listed at the top of this post and add in The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone and... I just realized I forgot to mention (but did count) The Town. So, that last Best Picture slot comes down to The Town, Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole and Another Year and 127 Hours. This last one seems like the easy candidate.
So, final ten:
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Inception
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
The Fighter
127 Hours
Winter's Bone
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
Left out, but deserving: Blue Valentine, Rabbit Hole, Another Year, The Town
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