But that is the latest movie I watched that will likely show up in Oscar nominations come 25 January. Tom O’Neil listed Alice in Wonderland among the possible nominees for best picture, but that won’t happen. My predictions for best picture nominees are as follows… in no particular order: Inception, Black Swan, The King’s Speech, The Fighter, The Social Network, 127 Hours, True Grit, Winter’s Bone, Toy Story 3… and filling that last spot will probably be The Kids Are All Right, but it might be The Town. While I figure I’ll enjoy Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole (two I haven’t seen yet), can’t imagine them getting any best picture nominations.
Now, who will win?
Inception had some momentum back when it was in theaters, and Christopher Nolan is likely to get a director nomination for the film, but I think that momentum may be gone. Still, it was a visually amazing film, with a nice, complex plot, fit to entertain the less intelligent while working its slow motion magic on the more discerning audience as well. While I can’t picture any of the actors being nominated, there’s a good shot at Visual Effects or one of the Sound awards.
Black Swan was also visually amazing—and I am a sucker for Aronofsky (who will get a director nomination)—but I have a feeling the—SPOILER ALERT—“downer” ending, not to mention the bizarre visuals and lesbian sex might put off some voters. Still, Natalie Portman gave a performance that will get her a nomination and that gives her a great shot at the win.
So, then comes the seeming front runner, The King’s Speech. It certainly has the elements of an Oscar winner—true story, main character with a challenge to overcome, and an awesome performance from Colin Firth… well, I guess “an awesome performance from Colin Firth” is not really an element of an Oscar winner, but that does seem to be guaranteed win for The King’s Speech (even if, say, Jesse Eisenberg and James Franco (and maybe Jeff Bridges, but I haven’t seen True Grit yet) were fantastic, but I’ll get to that below) even if it can’t take Best Picture. The problem with The King’s Speech, though, is the plot is actually fairly generic, no real surprises if you go in having any idea what it’s about. Still Geoffrey Rush is, as usual, great, and Colin Firth should take the win.
Another film that suffers from genericness (probably not a word, but oh well) is The Fighter. Mark Wahlberg didn’t detract from the film as much as I personally expected (didn’t help that I actually watched The Happening again just a matter of hours before going to see The Fighter). Christian Bale was, as usual, great; should definitely garner a Supporting Actor nomination. Amy Adams and/or Melissa Leo (more the latter than the former) will likely show up as the Academy’s Supporting Actress nominees, but personally, I’m not sure either one did much that was that impressive.
The Social Network took Best Picture from the Boston, New York and Los Angeles film critics associations, and was a great film and possibly my pick for Best Picture—though I think I liked Black Swan more, I think access to a wider audience, despite its main character being a bit unlikable, gives The Social Network an edge here. Eisenberg was great, as were Armie Hammer, Justin Timberlake and Andrew Garfield… of course, while this cast has a good shot at a SAG award for ensemble, I don’t think any of them will get any individual awards; Jesse Eisenberg did get Best Actor from the Boston critics and should get an Oscar nomination, but he won’t win. Fincher will get a director nomination and will probably take the win, though Aronofsky or Nolan have a good shot here (and the Coen brothers could make the list as well).
127 Hours is an amazing film, but as far as awards go, it all comes down to James Franco (though Boyle could garner a Best Director nomination, but not a win) as Lead Actor. While his performance is certainly worthy, I think audiences and actors (and a good percentage of the Academy is made up of actors) will appreciate what Colin Firth did for The King’s Speech more than what Franco did here, so I am not expecting an Oscar win for 127 Hours.
True Grit I have not seen yet. But, given the Coen brothers and Jeff Bridges, Critics Choice nominations also for Hailee Steinfield, for Makeup and Costume Design and Cinematography (and winning this last one from the Boston Critics), not to mention it looks like it will be as great if not better than the John Wayne version, it seems like True Grit will be a big player on Oscar day.
Winter’s Bone is the little movie that will probably make the big Best Picture list (unlike, say, Blue Valentine or Rabbit Hole or Get Low or numerous others). Jennifer Lawrence has shown up on the Globes list, the Critics Choice list, the Spirit Awards… but I don’t think she’ll win. Still, she put up a strong performance and I hope the nomination she’s likely to get will give her a good choice of roles to come.
Toy Story 3 should take Best Animated Feature and could be a surprise win for Best Picture, but probably not the latter. It is certainly one of the best films this past year, but animated films don’t even make the Best Picture list generally, and they never win (or never have, yet… it certainly seems like if anyone is going to break that, it will be Pixar).
The Kids Are All Right was a good film for a while, but really I think it would have worked better—SPOILER ALERT—if the cheating had been more of an emotional kind than just sex (not that it was just sex). In the end, the movie didn’t have anywhere to go, and while I might appreciate an open ended story, most audiences like the plot to come to a nice conclusion, all wrapped up and handed to them—like the feel-good ending of The Fighter or The King’s Speech or even the oh-my-god-do-you-think-that-top-kept-spinning? cleverness of Inception. Annette Bening seems like the front runner for Best Actress, though. Aside from maybe that scene near then end when she breaks down in tears on the couch, I didn’t see anything that blew me away, but the Academy loves it when an actress plays her age and the lesbian angle may give her role just enough edge to ensure her a win.
The Town was a well-directed film, but suffers from a bit of the genericness (there’s that word again) of a heist movie. But, still, I can’t imagine Affleck being nominated, and none of the actors will be on the list either. So, this is a long shot for Best Picture. I think The Town’s best shot on Oscar day will be for writing, even though its strong point is its direction.
So, which film will win? Momentum may change as Oscar day gets closer, but right now, I’d say it’s between The Social Network and The King’s Speech, with the edge going to the former.
And, Alice in Wonderland will not even make the Best Picture list.
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